在高檔盤整階段，相信很多投資朋友都有著不知道如何切入的問題吧。
像現在明明就偏多，但追進去不敢，掉下來又不敢接，只能看著這波行情發呆。
進入12月，做股票的贏面很大，拉回其實都是不錯的買點，各位可以先看看下面的大盤歷年漲跌統計表:
| 大盤 | 一月 | 二月 | 三月 | 四月 | 五月 | 六月 | 七月 | 八月 | 九月 | 十月 | 十一月 | 十二月 | 年漲幅 | ||
| 1987 | 10.7% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 29.0% | 3.6% | -12.2% | 24.2% | 50.1% | 45.0% | -38.9% | 8.5% | -20.8% | 50.8% | ||
| 1988 | 21.5% | 23.0% | -3.6% | 23.3% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 28.9% | 22.9% | 9.4% | -25.9% | 9.4% | -24.9% | 118.8% | ||
| 1989 | 20.3% | 13.8% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 23.9% | -6.4% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 4.1% | -11.3% | 2.4% | 88.0% | ||
| 1990 | 25.3% | -3.3% | -7.8% | -13.6% | -21.5% | -30.7% | 11.3% | -35.3% | -25.6% | 22.7% | 31.9% | 3.5% | -52.9% | ||
| 1991 | -11.2% | 25.1% | 2.1% | 15.2% | -5.2% | 2.8% | -10.2% | -13.0% | 8.0% | -9.8% | -0.3% | 5.1% | 1.6% | ||
| 1992 | 17.2% | -4.6% | -6.6% | -6.3% | 0.0% | 0.6% | -9.2% | -3.9% | -10.7% | 3.1% | 1.2% | -8.1% | -26.6% | ||
| 1993 | -0.1% | 29.9% | 10.0% | -5.4% | -6.5% | -6.4% | -0.9% | -1.7% | -1.5% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 39.4% | 79.8% | ||
| 1994 | 0.7% | -11.5% | -3.1% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 13.3% | 4.3% | 1.2% | -8.0% | -2.5% | 12.0% | 17.4% | ||
| 1995 | -11.5% | 3.2% | 0.2% | -11.0% | -2.2% | -4.0% | -4.9% | -7.2% | 4.6% | -4.3% | -0.8% | 8.3% | -27.4% | ||
| 1996 | -7.9% | 0.7% | 4.9% | 21.9% | -2.7% | 9.9% | -6.9% | 3.6% | 2.8% | -1.2% | 6.2% | 1.6% | 34.0% | ||
| 1997 | 5.0% | 8.1% | 1.6% | 6.0% | -3.8% | 10.6% | 11.5% | -3.1% | -10.7% | -16.0% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 18.1% | ||
| 1998 | -1.2% | 13.8% | -1.2% | -8.7% | -4.8% | -4.5% | 1.4% | -14.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 0.2% | -10.6% | -21.6% | ||
| 1999 | -6.5% | 5.3% | 8.9% | 7.1% | -0.7% | 15.7% | -13.5% | 11.3% | -6.9% | 3.4% | -1.7% | 9.4% | 31.6% | ||
| 2000 | 15.3% | -3.2% | 4.4% | -10.9% | 1.8% | -7.5% | -1.8% | -6.1% | -18.8% | -10.4% | -5.2% | -9.9% | -43.9% | ||
| 2001 | 25.3% | -4.4% | 2.2% | -7.2% | -6.2% | -3.3% | -10.9% | 3.6% | -19.3% | 7.3% | 13.8% | 25.0% | 17.1% | ||
| 2002 | 5.8% | -3.0% | 8.3% | -1.6% | -6.4% | -9.2% | -4.1% | -3.6% | -12.0% | 9.2% | 1.5% | -4.2% | -19.8% | ||
| 2003 | 12.6% | -11.6% | -2.5% | -4.0% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 6.3% | -0.7% | 7.7% | -4.5% | 2.1% | 32.3% | ||
| 2004 | 8.2% | 5.9% | -3.4% | -6.2% | -2.3% | -2.3% | -7.2% | 6.4% | 1.4% | -2.4% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 4.2% | ||
| 2005 | -2.4% | 3.6% | -3.3% | -3.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 1.1% | -4.4% | 1.4% | -5.8% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | ||
| 2006 | -0.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 8.4% | -4.5% | -2.1% | -3.7% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 19.5% | ||
| 2007 | -1.6% | 2.6% | -0.2% | -0.1% | 3.4% | 9.1% | 4.5% | -3.3% | 5.5% | 2.5% | -11.6% | -0.9% | -8.4% | ||
| 2008 | -11.6% | 11.9% | 1.9% | 4.1% | -3.4% | -12.7% | -6.6% | 0.3% | -18.8% | -14.8% | -8.4% | 2.9% | -46.0% | ||
| 2009 | -7.5% | 7.3% | 14.3% | 15.0% | 15.0% | -6.7% | 10.0% | -3.6% | 10.0% | -2.3% | 3.3% | 8.0% | 78.3% | ||
| 2010 | -6.7% | -2.7% | 6.5% | 1.1% | -7.9% | -0.6% | 5.9% | -1.9% | 8.2% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 7.2% | 9.6% | ||
| 2011 | 1.9% | -6.0% | 1.0% | 3.7% | -0.2% | -3.7% | -0.1% | -10.4% | -6.7% | 5.0% | -9.0% | 2.4% | -21.2% | ||
| 2012 | 6.3% | 8.0% | -2.3% | -5.4% | -2.7% | -0.1% | -0.4% | 1.7% | 4.3% | -7.1% | 5.8% | 1.6% | 8.9% | ||
| 2013 | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 2.0% | -2.3% | 0.6% | -1.1% | 1.9% | 3.4% | -0.5% | 0.4% | 9.7% | ||
| Total | 4.07% | 4.58% | 1.84% | 2.59% | -0.29% | -1.71% | 1.66% | 0.17% | -0.63% | -2.34% | 2.10% | 2.63% | |||
| 勝率 | 56% | 67% | 63% | 52% | 41% | 37% | 48% | 44% | 59% | 52% | 59% | 74% |
藉由上面的統計表，可以發現12月是大盤勝率最高的一個月，高達74%，而且近5年來還沒輸過。
站在基本面來看，電子在年底本就是旺季，金融也有政策性利多，傳產也有歲修基本行情，電金傳都有題材，所以大盤在這上漲機會高也是非常合理的。
大家可以再觀察其他月份，其實大盤在其他月份勝率多半是55波，有些還差些，畢竟大盤是所有股票的綜合體，有人漲也有人跌，所以勝利一半一半也很正常，但低手哥最主要想說的是，12月真的是一個作股票的好月份，大盤勝率要這麼高，所有權值類股的表現不太可能爛到哪。
因此對於股票族而言，在台股強勢時，只要國際股市出狀況就是好買點，不過一個很重要的判斷是，當天止跌了沒有。
大家都嘛想買在最低點，但低手哥在這邊先奉勸各位別有這種想法，但我們可以盡量接近低點來買，因此只要當天受到國際股市下跌影響開低時，只要早盤沒破低就可以嘗試進場了，最好是遇到大跌且法人期貨被套的狀況。
至於買甚麼股票，這應該就簡單多了吧，在12月大盤上漲機會這麼高的月份，權值股表現都不會太差，各位可以專挑自己平常就有研究的個股，只要不要太冷門、交易量不要過小，即便不是台灣50內的股票，在其他權值股強勢下也不太會完全給你動都不動。
低手哥以前說過，我個人比較偏愛傳產類股，因為基本上我就是個老人，而在12月我最喜歡做的就是有作帳行情的集團類股，這樣說應該很明顯了吧?
當然進場後還是得設個自己能接受的停損，如果這個停損能是一個波段低點更好，只要願意花點時間跟你的股票相處，這段時間作股票並不會太難。
祝大家做單愉快啦。
低手哥
留言列表
籌碼查詢 
